Inflation Impact Calculator

Find out if your raise actually keeps up with inflation — and what your expenses will look like in 1, 3, and 5 years.

Is your raise a real raise, or a quiet pay cut?

The headline CPI number (3.8% in Apr 2026) is an average — your household's actual experience depends on what you spend money on. Energy is up 17.9% YoY. Groceries and housing are running above headline. Your real inflation rate may be higher or lower depending on your spending mix.

This calculator shows you the actual math: your nominal raise minus inflation = your real raise. And then projects what your expenses will cost at current inflation rates in 1, 3, and 5 years.

What this calculator shows

Current inflation context (2026)

Inflation Impact Calculator

Find your real purchasing power

Real Wages in 2026: What Inflation Is Doing to Your Purchasing Power

The April 2026 CPI report showed headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year — the highest reading in over a year, driven primarily by energy prices. But the 3.8% figure is an average across a market basket of goods weighted by typical spending patterns. Your personal inflation rate may be meaningfully higher or lower depending on how you actually spend money.

How CPI Is Built — and Why It Differs from Your Experience

The Consumer Price Index measures price changes across eight major categories: food, energy, shelter, medical care, transportation, apparel, recreation, and education. The relative weights matter enormously. Shelter (housing) accounts for roughly 34% of CPI. If you own your home outright, that component barely affects your experience. If you are a renter in a high-cost market, your effective shelter inflation may be running 5–10% — far above the weight CPI assigns it in your situation. Energy at +17.9% year-over-year is the biggest current driver of the elevated 2026 headline. Households that drive more than average feel this acutely.

The Real Wage Calculation

If your salary increased 3% this year and inflation is 3.8%, your real wage — your actual purchasing power — fell by 0.8%. For a $75,000 annual salary, that is roughly $600 in lost purchasing power this year alone. You are nominally making more and effectively affording less. This erosion compounds over multiple years of negative real wages. A worker who takes a 0.8% real pay cut for three consecutive years loses roughly 2.4% of their purchasing power, which on a $75,000 base represents $1,800 per year in real spending capacity that has quietly disappeared.

Savings Rate vs. Inflation

The calculator also shows how your savings rate compares to inflation. At 3.8% inflation, a high-yield savings account paying 4.5% APY is generating a positive real return of 0.7% annually. Money market accounts paying below 3.8% are effectively losing purchasing power despite appearing to grow. Traditional savings accounts at 0.5% are losing nearly 3.3% in real purchasing power per year — a significant cost of holding cash that most people do not think of as a cost. The difference between nominal and real returns is one of the most underappreciated concepts in household finance.

Projecting Future Expenses

One of the most useful outputs of this calculator is the expense projection. At 3.8% inflation, a household spending $4,200 per month today will need approximately $5,100 per month in five years to maintain the same standard of living — assuming inflation stays constant. At 4.5%, the same expenses require $5,250 per month. These projections are particularly important for retirement planning, where fixed income sources (Social Security, pensions) lose real value over time while expenses rise.

People Also Ask

What is the current US inflation rate in 2026?
US CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026 per the Bureau of Labor Statistics — up from 3.3% in March. The acceleration is largely driven by energy (up 17.9% YoY, gasoline +28.4%). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is 2.8%. Most households feel it more acutely than the headline due to concentrated spending in fast-rising categories.
Is a 3% raise enough in 2026 with 3.8% inflation?
No — a 3% raise with 3.8% inflation means you're taking a 0.8% real pay cut. For a $75,000 salary, that's roughly $600/year in lost purchasing power. You need a 3.8% raise just to break even. If your spending is weighted toward energy, housing, or groceries, your personal inflation rate may be even higher.
How much do I need to earn to break even with inflation?
For a $75,000/year household at 3.8% inflation, you need a $2,850 raise just to maintain the same purchasing power. At 4.5% (elevated tariff scenario), you need $3,375 to break even. Anything below these numbers is a real pay cut — your salary buys less than it did last year.
How are tariffs making inflation worse in 2026?
Even with the May 2026 US-China truce reducing China tariffs from 145% to ~30%, import tariffs on goods from Vietnam (~20%), India (~18%), and other countries continue to push prices higher. Retailers have passed through 3–8% price increases on electronics, clothing, and appliances. Energy prices (gasoline +28.4% YoY) are the biggest current driver of the 3.8% headline.
What's the difference between CPI and my personal inflation rate?
CPI is a market basket average weighted by typical American spending patterns. Your personal inflation rate depends on your actual spending mix. If you spend more on housing, food, and energy (all rising fast), your rate is higher than CPI. If you spend heavily on technology (which tends to fall), your rate may be lower. Use this calculator with your actual expense categories for your real number.